•Only 25.3m voters, 27% took part •Voters’ disenfranchisement, vote-suppression, others fingered
All Progressives Congress, APC, Candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, was on Wednesday morning declared the winner of the 2023 poll and President-Elect.
Tinubu, who polled 8,794,726 votes, beat his closest challenger, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, with 1.81million votes, the lowest margin since 1979 in the history of presidential polls in the world’s largest black nation. Atiku got 6,984,520 votes at the election. Tinubu had 34.78 per cent of the votes cast.
With 25.3 million voters or 27 per cent of the 93.469 million registered voters taking part, the February 25 poll also recorded the worst voters’ turnout ever.
Keenest poll
Tinubu won in 12 states to beat Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, who came second with 6,984,520 votes and also won in 12 states.
The Labour Party, LP, Candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, polled 6,101,533 votes to place a close third. He also won 11 states and the FCT.
Former Governor of Kano State and New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, Candidate, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, came fourth with 1,496,687 votes.
Tinubu won in Ekiti, Kwara, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Jigawa, Niger, Benue, Kogi, Borno, Zamfara and Rivers states.
Atiku won in Osun, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa, Katsina, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Kaduna, Kebbi and Sokoto states.
Obi won in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Imo, Delta, Cross River Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Plateau, Nasarawa and Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Abuja.
Margin of victory in past polls
In terms of margin, the 2023 poll is slightly better than the 1979 presidential poll when Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, beat Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN with 1.77 million votes.
At the end of a very keen balloting in 1979, Shagari polled 5, 688,857 votes (33.77 per cent) while Awolowo had 4,916,651 votes (29.18 per cent). Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe of the Nigeria Peoples Party, NPP, came third with 2,822,523 votes (16.75 per cent).
In 1983, Shagari, who was seeking a re-election garnered 12,081,471 votes (47.51per cent); Awolowo had 7,907, 209 votes (31.09 per cent); and Azikiwe polled 3,557,113 votes (13.99 per cent).
In 1993, Chief MKO Abiola of the Social Democratic Party, SDP; and Alhaji Bashir Othman Tofa of the National Republican Convention, NRC, ran. Abiola, who polled 8,341,309 votes (58.36 per cent) compared to Tofa’s 5,952,087 votes (41.64 per cent) had the upper hand.
At the return to civil rule in 1999, three parties were cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, to contest the presidential, National Assembly, Governorship and state assembly polls. However, the accord reached by the Alliance for Democracy, AD and All People’s Party, APP, to field Chief Olu Falae as a joint presidential candidate against Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP made the contest a two-party affair.
Obasanjo ran away with victory after scoring 18,738,154 votes (62.78 per cent) as Falae got 11,110,287 votes (37.22 per cent).
While seeking re-election in 2003, Obasanjo had 19 challengers but only General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigerian People’s Party, ANPP, put up a strong but ineffective challenge. Obasanjo got 24,456,140 or 61.94 per cent of the votes. Buhari had 12,710,022 or 32.19 per cent. Late Chief Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, came a distant third with 1,297,445 votes (3.29 per cent).
In 2007, Dr Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua of the PDP won the highly controversial election contested by 25 candidates. He scored 24,638,063 votes (69.60 per cent). Buhari of the ANPP, who came second had 6,605,299 votes (18.66 per cent) while Atiku Abubakar of the Action Congress, AC, garnered 2,637,848 (7.48 per cent) to place third.
In 2011, following the death of Yar’ Adua, the PDP ticket went to Dr Goodluck Jonathan, who as vice president succeeded the late president. Jonathan got 22,495,187 or 58.87 per cent of the votes cast in that election to defeat 19 other contestants including Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, who polled 12,214,853 votes (31.97 per cent).
The 2015 election was a straight battle between Buhari of the APC (15,424,921 or 53.96 per cent of votes) and then incumbent President Jonathan of the PDP, who polled 12,853,162 votes (44.96 per cent).
The 2019 election was akin to that of 2015. Buhari had the upper hand in his re-election quest against Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and 72 other contenders. Buhari garnered 15,191,847 votes (55.60 per cent) while Atiku had 11,262,978 votes (41.22 per cent).
Margin of victory in presidential polls
2023—1.81 million
2019—3.929 million
2015—2.572 million
2011—10.28 million
2007—18.03 million
2003—11.746 million
1999—7.638 million
1993—2.389 million
1983—4.174 million
1979 – 1.77 million
Worst voters’ turnout
Giving voters’ turnout in past polls, last Saturday’s 25,286,616 figure is the least turnout in presidential contests in Nigeria
Before the election, Vanguard projected that fewer than 30 million voters would take part in the polls even though 93.469 voters were registered. The projection was based on the inability of millions of voters to collect their Permanent Voters’ Cards, PVCs, INEC’s non-removal of names of dead voters between 2019 and 2023 from the list; fears of insecurity; and hardship arising from scarcity of naira.
Indeed, only 25,286,616 voters were accredited for the 2023 Presidential and National Assembly. This represents 27.05 per cent of the 93.469 million registered voters of 28.938 per cent of the 87.209 million voters that collected their PVCs.
But for glitches that marred the election such as late arrival of INEC officials, disenfranchisement of voters and suppression of votes, the turnout would have been higher, Saturday Vanguard, gathered.
Turnout in past polls
So far, the 2003 presidential poll has remained the best in terms of voter turnout. No fewer than 42.02 million of the 60.82 million registered voters (69.08 per cent) came out to vote.
The famous do-or-die election of 2007 had a 57.49 per cent voter turnout.
In 2011 it was 53.68 per cent.
The turnouts for other elections were 1999 (52.26 per cent), 2015 (43.65 per cent), 1983 (38.94 per cent), 1993 (36.65 per cent), 1979 (35.25 per cent); and 2019 (34.75 per cent).
